CoCLIME

Project type	ERA-NET “European Research Area for Climate Services” (ERA4CS) Joint Call
Project Title and Acronym	Co-development of Climate Services for adaptation to changing Marine Ecosystems (CoCliME)
Duration	36 Months (2017-2020)
Budget	4.6 million Euros; NIMRD budget: € 200 000
Coordinator	Marine Institute (IE), Galway, Ireland
Consortium	8 partners: Bantry Marine Research Station (IE); Institut Francais de recherché pour l'Exploitation de la Mer(FR); University of Nantes (FR); Université Pierre et Marie Curie (FR); Alfred Wegener Institut (DE); CICERO-Oslo (NO); Institute of Marine Research (NO); National Institute for Marine Research and Development “Grigore Antipa” - NIMRD (RO); Consejo Superior (ES); Stockholm Environment Institute (SE); Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute (SE).

Overview
The CoCliME project will co-develop and co-produce bespoke, proof-of-concepts or prototype marine ecosystem climate services and a transferable framework for climate services development, to support informed decision making relevant to climate change-related ecological and socio-economic impacts across different coastal regions. To achieve these objectives the CoCliME consortium brings together a transdisciplinary team of natural and social scientists, decision makers, and users of climate services that will dynamically interact to identify common and priority climate change-related vulnerabilities and solutions in six European coastal areas (Atlantic, Baltic, Black, Mediterranean, North and Norwegian Seas case studies). In these areas, CoCliME will focus on coastal ecosystem status indicators such as harmful algal blooms, marine biotoxins and pathogens, and marine microbial biodiversity that can be markedly influenced by climate change and have direct impacts on human health (food-borne poisoning and water-quality related health disorders), economic prosperity (fisheries, aquaculture, tourism) and social wellbeing (recreation). From the very start a co-production and co-development approach to climate services will identify the information and knowledge needs of decision makers and users, and facilitate and accelerate local, national and European decision making concerning adaptation to climate change impacts. This marine ecosystem climate service framework will feed into mechanisms such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Marine Spatial Planning, national monitoring and reporting requirements, and climate adaptation planning to ensure the protection and sustainable use of Europe's marine and coastal ecosystems for future generations.

Case study focus: The Black Sea
Chemical pollution and severe eutrophication are important environmental problems on the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea (O. Higgins et al, 2014). High biomass microalgal blooms (leading to low oxygen levels in the water column and sediments) and microbial pathogens threaten aquaculture and tourism activities (Taylor and Longo 2010). The CoCliME Black Sea case study will focus on enteric microorganisms in bathing & shellfish-harvesting areas working with end users including: Constanta Public Health; National Agency for Fisheries and Aquaculture; and Romanian National Authority for Tourism.

Role of NIMRD (Partner 8): Black Sea case study leader (co-development with users, Black Sea and coastal ecosystems modelling, hindcast & ecosystem modelling for entric microorganisms in bathing & shellfish harvesting areas), interaction with Mediterranean and Baltic Sea case studies. These aims will be achieved by: Technical and scientific fundamentation of the project (Stage I) Modelling and ecosystem functioning in present and future ocean (Stage II) Ecological and socio-economic impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and users (Stage III) Delivery and dissemination of CoCLIME services and transferable processes (Stage (IV)

Stage I: Technical and scientific fundamentation of the project Activities: Setting up the general organizational and methodologically framework of research activities Co-development with users: setting up and maintaining a network of climate services users in the Black Sea region, made up of co-developers, end-users and vendors; evaluation experiences, needs and expectations of users for the development of climate services Acquisition of the research materials and equipment required for project development Results of Stage I: Project specific operational plan Baseline assessment of Black Sea existing services and stakeholders that are involved in the regulation, or are affected by, harmful/toxic/pathogenic marine microbes Services for ensuring the optimal conditions of project objectivesachievement (acquisition of consumables and equipment; services performed by third parties for project Setting up the project Web page RTS Report for Stage 1

Stage II : Modelling and ecosystem functioning in present and future ocean Objectives: Hindcasts: existing databases will be analyzed for occurrence of key benthic and pelagic species of toxic and pathogenic micro-organisms, physical and environmental parameters Connectivity assessment: available physical hindcasts from regional models and suitable reanalyses products for connectivity estimations between coastal areas. These indicators will be produced to highlight inter-annual variability of the connection between populations and potential invasion of new species. Ecosystem functioning: to provide better understanding of the impact of environmental parameters on the future occurrence of several species by field and laboratory studies Simulating the future marine ecosystem & uncertainty assessment: to analyse the spatially and temporally resolved projections of climate-driven changes in key environmental parameters in the case regions, using the regional climate models. Activities: Hindcasts & statistical event analysis Assessment of connectivity of population of key species; definition of modelling framework and simulations for connectivity estimations according experimental results Ecosystem functioning and impact of environmental parameters on key species of micro-organism Simulating the future marine ecosystem & uncertainty assessment (performance and analysis of future simulations and development of indicators (trend and variability); Determine, in interaction with the end users, which indicators of climate change and climate-change impact should be utilized within each case study) Acquisition of the research materials and equipment required for project development Results of Stage II: Provision of existing observations from biological databases Potential environmental factors outlined for consideration in impact studies Hindcast model information on the state of the marine environment from regional models Available hindcasts and available data on populations analysed Internal project database on drivers affecting HABs completed Services for ensuring the optimal conditions of project objectives achievement (acquisition of consumables and equipment; services performed by third parties for project) Updating the national project WEB page; linking with the project consortium WEB page RTS Report for Stage 2